The following is a post to the CLPOA facebook page….
Following up on Iain’s post of April 2, 2021 where he reports that the flow along Flat Creek is into the lake: –It seems as of April 3, the reverse flow has “reversed” and is back to a normal outflow from the lake. On March 25, the lake level was 1026′ 3″. The first log was pulled out of the Paudash dam on that day, with a log being pulled on March 26 and March 28. The Chandos lake level peaked around April 1 just over 1027′, and as of 3 April it is about 1027′ 0″. In 2020 the peak of 1027′ 6″ occurred about April 6. Unless there are some really crazy rains in the next week or so, we have likely passed our peak water for 2021.
In 2021 the ice should go out well ahead of its long term average date of April 18. Last year and this year it will be early, but in 2018 and 19, it was quite late. See graph. If you remember, 2018 and 2019 were high water years with great concerns over flooding.
When the ice goes out late, it seems like the spring melt occurs over a very short time period, thereby giving rise to flooding. Later means a lot more sunshine and warmer daily temperatures, thus turbocharging the melt rate. When the ice goes early, it is a sign the melt has started earlier, and usually at a slower pace, thereby allowing the Crowe to handle the increased flow in a more graceful manner.
The concern with an early melt is if we get a lot of rain, the frost is still in the ground and therefore any rain in the entire watershed becomes runoff, with very little being taken up by the soil. So this amplifies the effect of the rainfall on the lake level.